Will add more clarifying descriptions as the details become clearer. But question is pretty straightforward. Parking tickets or such trivial things like that would not count (my legal knowledge is questionable). I'm mostly referring to the subject of the indictment from yesterday or other similar crimes that come up.
I will not bet in this market as the outcome is subjective.
1,000
3.00@benshindel Federal conviction rates are >90%. In the most recent dataset I can find, from FY22 [0], defendants charged with "Public order - Other" offenses [1] as the most serious offense at arrest were convicted 91.4% of the time (n=5,847), with an 86.7% conviction rate for the 4.5% of whom chose to take charges to trial. The numbers are slightly better for defendants charged with ""Property - Fraud" as the most serious offense at arrest. I cannot find specific numbers for bribery cases, which should be the most difficult charge of the five Adams is facing for the government to prove, especially given recent appellate rulings in the space.
I expect the charges against Adams are much stronger than the median case, given the decision to indict the sitting mayor of a major American city, the level of detail in the indictment, and the amount of evidence obtained by prosecutors. Adams has also already said he isn't going to enter a guilty plea, so if you believe him, that takes the possibility he pleas to something lesser off the table (although I don't see why prosecutors would go for it, and certainly not for any misdemeanor). They charged him with five felonies; why do you think there is a decent chance they would "just" settle for a misdemeanor?
And that's before you even get to the fact that there's a whole other set of investigations into Adams, including 2 or 3 more in the SDNY and at least one in the EDNY.
The only thing stopping me from buying this to 95% is the lack of a scheduling order.
[0]: https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/federal-justice-statistics-2022
[1]: Includes non-regulatory violations concerning tax law (tax fraud), bribery,perjury, national defense, escape, racketeering and extortion, gambling, liquor, mailing or transporting obscene materials, traffic, migratory birds, conspiracy, aiding and abetting, jurisdiction, and other offenses.
@kopecs I think you’ll find that the outcomes of many markets that seem cut-and-dry turn out to be quite subjective! For this reason, I avoid betting in any of my own markets that aren’t EXTREMELY straightforward to resolve (like who will win a sports game, say)