Will Alireza Firouzja play in the 2024 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
59
1.5K
930
Apr 3
98%
chance

This resolves positively if Firouzja is able to qualify and play in the 2024 FIDE Candidates Tournament:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_Tournament_2024

If Firouzja qualifies for but declines to partipate in the tournament, it will resolve negatively.

If Firouzja is selected by FIDE as a replacement in the tournament, without qualifying directly, this will still resolve positively.

This market closes at the start of the candidates tournament. If Firouzja, somehow, participates in the tournament and is paired in the first round, but never manages to play a match due to sickness, protest, or other factors, it will resolve negatively. This market will resolve negatively after the first round of the tournament occuring without Firouzja being a listed player, or positively upon Firouzja playing a match in the tournament.

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Firouzja better withdraw lol. Otherwise he is tempting fate.

@benshindel What if 2700’s calculation for Wesley is too low by 0.1 elo though 😆 and he rounds up to 2758, forcing a coin flip…

bought Ṁ150 of YES

Firouzja just won against Kamsky. He has one more match tomorrow. Firouzja has secured enough ELO to pass So even without getting rated for the Chartres tournament. He can either choose to withdraw from the match tomorrow or he can play his opponent who will likely be around 2300 ELO. Which should be an easy win for him.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

Firouzja is taking part in an open that will be rated for FIDE's January 2024 rankings http://www.echecs.asso.fr/FicheTournoi.aspx?Ref=61173&fbclid=IwAR18lhY5insHXYms0jtwyK75F6LwrQ3eZsMUxKi7FLosdxKmhSnnKxk5HQ0

@MP do you still think Firouzja is match fixing?

@MaxMorehead Hell ya

I'm offering odds that this is fixed at /MP/will-alireza-firouzja-win-both-his

So sad this crook has a 53% probability

sold Ṁ55 of NO

@MP I don't think it's fair to blame him, rather than the change to the qualification system from an average across a year's rating lists to a single month's rating list

predicts NO

@benshindel players are going to do what they can to maximize their chances and I think organizing a tournament to try to qualify is fair game. Ding did it before the last candidate's cycle, Gukesh and Erigaisi are doing it as well to try to qualify via the FIDE Circuit spot. I don't think the other players are losing to Firouzja on purpose, and he has only gained like 4 rating points through it. It's very possible he draws a game and loses rating points on net.

@benshindel this isn't organizing a tournament, this is match fixing. I challenge you to find someone who would have playing Nab3 during classic time control.

sold Ṁ47 of NO

@MP I'm sorry, you think Firouzja is actually cheating in the games? Or do you think his opponents are purposefully going easy? What is your explicit accusation?

predicts NO

Pretty big arb opportunity with the other market I just posted (which I can’t bet in)

bought Ṁ30 of NO

Firouzja path to the candidates is now Wesley So winning the World Blitz Championship, or getting top three in the World Rapid Championship and thereby getting 2nd in the FIDE circuit, plus Dominguez not qualifying based on rating. However, Wesley So did not participate in the world Blitz/Rapid last year due to it being right after Christmas, and I think it's relatively likely he doesn't participate this year given he is already in pole position for the candidates.

Another possibility is the people above Firouzja in rating deciding not to play the candidates.

@MaxMorehead why would he not participate? He won't lose rating playing rapid

predicts NO

@MP Last year he didn't play in the World Rapid and Blitz in order to spend time with family (I believe he is a very devout Christian and the holiday is important to him). In fact, I believe he's not played for similar reasons for the past few years at least. I just expect that to continue, especially if it's not necessary for candidates qualification.

bought Ṁ30 of NO

I think Firouzja has a fairly narrow path to the Candidates with 3 rounds to go in the sinquefield cup. His chance is reliant on either So getting 1st or 2nd or completely collapsing, or Dominguez collapsing or not being able to find a qualifying tournament before the end of the year. It's hard to tell how likely Dominguez is to find a qualifying tournament given that there's none already scheduled, but it might be a Ding Liren situation where a last minute tournament is set up for the purposes of qualification. He also has chance of being passed by Giri before the end of the tournament.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

Giri currently in position to qualify via the grand chess tour and So via rating (very fine margin of error though).

predicts NO

@nicwest06d6 there's a world where So comes second in the grand chess tour (currently winning the Sinquefield cup, Fabi is already qualified), Firouzja qualifies on rating and Giri gets left out in the cold

sold Ṁ50 of NO

The bots have found this market, lol