Resolves YES if I see proof that a major newspaper used/referenced a Manifold market in their coverage of a topic between now and the 2024 election.
Major newspapers for the purpose of this market are the NYT, the WSJ, and the Washington Post. Must be in print/online as a normal article (not a podcast, video, etc).
The newspaper must cite the actual prediction numbers to some extent (they cannot simply say that a market exists for it) to bolster their coverage. In other words, it should be used like fivethirtyeight or other statistical predictions/poll aggregators have been used in the past, broadly speaking.
Obviously I will not be reading every single article so if you see it, you may have to bring my attention to it.
I will NOT bet in this market.
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@benshindel it's now election day, and i'm not aware of those 3 papers ever citing a market. looks like this resolves NO?
Still hasn't happened, to my knowledge. Getting close to the election, and perhaps newspapers will mostly cite Polymarket, rather than Manifold?
Seems like two mainstream journalists are seriously considering this, and Manifold is offering to make it happen. https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Hard-Fork-Podcast-Notes-dc1fcf61932842bd98a8a7a5e320d6f4
@BenjaminShindel The election end date is just an arbitrary end date that also conveniently contains all coverage about the election (which tends to bring out coverage of odds/predictions)