Will the MEDIAN number of shares held by traders of this market be less than 200?
13
100Ṁ1339
Apr 21
98.9%
chance

Resolves YES if the median number of shares held at market close by traders is below 200. Resolves NO otherwise (including if the median is exactly 200).

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I meant for the market close date to be one month out, but looks like I set it at one YEAR out?! Adjusted this, but let me know if this affects any of your betting strategies (lol it doesn't)

Wow this crashed and burned lol. I really thought this would reach equilibrium... XD

@bens Probably 200 is too high. Maybe with a lower threshold, people would be more inclined to buy NO. 🤔 There was more up and down, here: https://manifold.markets/carterallen/will-the-median-number-of-shares-he-Oqnpz5EgdS

Will the median number of shares held in this market exceed 50?
18% chance.

Suggestion to traders: create a limit order for NO of exactly 200 shares.

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