If no credible vote tallies from the conclave leak by the end of June, this resolves to 0% (NO).
If an extremely credible list of every vote and its tallies leaks (say, a Cardinal explicitly and publicly breaks Vatican rules and releases the vote tallies from a journal to a journalist), this resolves to 100% (YES).
If any scenario happens in between, I will resolve to a PROB based on my own subjective reasoning! This might take into account what fraction of the votes were leaked, whether it came from a credible source, whether it aligns with subjective impressions of faithful reporting and accuracy, etc.
For example, what happened after the 2005 conclave would probably resolve to 85-90%:
https://www.foxnews.com/story/cardinal-spills-secrets-from-conclave
I will not vote in this market. If you think that betting on a subjective market will make you annoyed and unhappy, please avoid betting.
Update 2025-06-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is resolving the market. See their comment for the detailed reasoning behind the final resolution.
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Okay, so resolving to PROB, as the market description explained:
This is the only source I was able to find with anything resembling vote tallies:
I’d say there’s a decent chance it’s a real source, perhaps a Japanese cardinal given the news agency. Let’s say ~40% chance it’s a real source, given that it wasn’t reported elsewhere. There's also, let’s say, a 50% chance it’s a secondary source (someone relaying information provided by a cardinal, for example). I’m going to reduce the accuracy of the information commensurately by about half, so that gets us to 35% (trust me on the math).
Now, these tallies are extremely loose and incomplete. Only one of the four tallies was given and only the numbers for Prevost there (and we know he won of course). Rough accounting of the earlier votes is given, but I’d say this represents like a 25% complete summary of the vote, all things together. Multiplied by the previous veracity %, this comes out to 8.75%, which I’ll round to 9%.
Resolves to 9%.