Resolves YES if Mark Kelly is court-martialed by the end of March 2026.
Does not require a conviction or punishment!
Update 2025-11-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market resolves YES if Mark Kelly is court-martialed (not necessarily imprisoned or convicted, just court-martialed) by the end of March 2026.
Update 2025-11-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market resolves YES if Mark Kelly is subject to a court-martial (not necessarily found guilty or punished) by the end of March 2026.
1,000@bens I have the same question as the other comment here. I really think this market would be a good one to have a separate question for both of the things they bring up.
@Eliza oh I meant just court-martialed, not put in prison! I can add a question about the latter, but I think the odds are so low that it's not particularly valuable to even ask
@bens if he is indeed court-martialed, or it seems likely that this will happen, I would happily support or make questions on what the outcome will be, but I'd guess that conditional on this 13% market occurring, there's probably ~20% chance that he's actually convicted which would put that market in lizardman territory
@bens I feel like there should be a way for Manifold to display "the first step is 13% and we think the second step (given the first step did already happen) is like 5% so the total is like tiny"
Do you mean, is subject to a court martial? Or do you mean, is found guilty & punished in some way? Civilians often misuse the term, & seem to think it means "gets put in prison/kicked out"