The terms of the bet are such:

I have staked 25k mana against David's (@dlin007) 90k mana.

David wins the bet if Trump outperforms his final (morning of election day) RCP polling averages (Trump vote share, not margin) in all three of MI, WI, and PA, and does so by an average of at least 2.5%. I win otherwise.

TLDR: therefore, what you're betting on in this market is the outcome of this bet; resolves YES if I win (Trump doesn't significantly outperform) and NO if David wins (Trump significantly outperforms).

@Joshua @SemioticRivalry and @shankypanky are arbitrating and provided escrow.

I MAY bet in this market. If the resolution is at all controversial, then the team of 3 mods listed above will determine the resolution! If they decide to resolve the bet to some PROB or cancel it, then this market will resolve accordingly (although I really don't see why or how that would happen). I would ask those 3 mods to therefore not bet in this market to avoid the appearance of impropriety!

I've set the close date well after the election in case it comes down to a recount or something stupid, but hopefully this should resolve shortly after the election (as soon as the bet resolves itself).