Resolution criteria

AOC's team is positioning her to run for president or the U.S. Senate in 2028. This market resolves based on which office(s) AOC officially announces a candidacy for by December 31, 2028:

• Run for PRESIDENT: AOC announces a presidential campaign

• Run for SENATOR: AOC announces a campaign for U.S. Senate (likely against Chuck Schumer)

• Run for BOTH: AOC announces campaigns for both president and Senate

• Run for NEITHER: AOC does not announce campaigns for either office

Resolution is based on official campaign announcements or filings with the Federal Election Commission. If AOC announces for one office then switches to the other, the market will resolve to "BOTH". If AOC instead runs for a different office (and does not run for President or Senator) it will resolve to "NEITHER".

Background

AOC and her team are positioning her to run for president or the U.S. Senate in 2028. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, 74, is up for re-election in 2028, and a race between Schumer and Ocasio-Cortez, 35, would pit the Democratic Party's leading traditionalist against its star insurgent progressive. An April survey of New York Democratic primary voters by Data For Progress found Ocasio-Cortez leading Schumer by 19 points in a hypothetical 2028 matchup, 55–36. Recent polling found her placing third in a hypothetical Democratic primary, with Newsom leading at 23 percent, Harris at 19 percent, and 8 percent backing Ocasio-Cortez.

AOC has stated she's not focused on running for president in 2028, despite the progressive base increasingly calling for her to seek higher office. A majority of Hill staffers (67%) say AOC will run for Senate in 2028 as her political path moves forward, suggesting insiders view a Senate bid as more likely than a presidential run. No formal announcement has been made as of January 2026.

I will not bet in this market to remain objective (after setting initial odds).