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MANIFOLD
Is my friend’s sister-in-law having a boy or a girl?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ31
2027
45%
chance

Resolves YES for boy (for Y chromosome)

Resolves NO for girl (something something Simone de Beauvoir)

Background:

My friend is a business professor

His wife is a business professor

Her sister works in private equity

Her husband is a screenwriter

The latter two are having a child. The gender of the child affects a lot. Will my friend’s brother-in-law have a son that can carry on his ancestral worship at the family hearth? Will my friend’s sister-in-law have a daughter who will carry on her family’s tradition of competent and results-driven private equity? Your betting behavior on this market might change the incentives here to throw the balance of power in one direction or the other. Bet carefully.

Market context
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