How long will the shutdown beginning on October 1st last?
5
200Ṁ165Jan 1
22%
No Shutdown
7%
Less than a day (0.01 - 0.99 days)
7%
1 day (1 - 1.99 days)
7%
2 days (2 - 2.99 days)
10%
3 - 4 days (3 - 4.99 days)
21%
5 - 9 days (5 - 9.99 days)
21%
10 - 29 days (10 - 29.99 days)
7%
30 or more days (>= 30 days)
This market will resolve according to how many days the U.S. Office of Personnel Management announces that the U.S. federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse in appropriations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM.
Only an "actual" shutdown with furloughs will count, for the purposes of this question. A "non-actual" shutdown will resolve to the first option (no shutdown).
I will not bet in this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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