Which country will have the most overall medals (Gold + Silver + Bronze). In the event of a tie, resolves equally to all countries in that tie.
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Norway at 77% for most overall medals seems about right, maybe slightly low. They won the most total medals in 4 of the last 5 Winter Olympics (2010, 2014, 2018, 2022). The only exception was 2006 Turin (Germany won most total; Norway still won most golds).
Interesting that this is priced at 77% while the most-golds market has Norway at 88%. The gap makes structural sense: Norway dominates gold-heavy events (cross-country, biathlon, nordic combined) but countries like Germany and the US accumulate silvers and bronzes more consistently across a wider range of disciplines. So Norway's gold lead is more secure than their total-medal lead.
The main threat is the USA. They won 25 medals in Beijing 2022 vs Norway's 37, but the gap narrows in years when the US overperforms in freestyle/snowboard events. Italy hosting could also give them a slight home advantage, though they historically finish outside the top 3 in total medals.