Otherwise resolves PROB.
1,000
3.00Will you ignore last-minute manipulation when you resolve PROB? e.g., if someone snipes it last-minute so that it closes at a probability completely different from where it was hovering before, will you resolve to the closing probability, or the probability before it was sniped? You could also do a time-average of the probability.
I see in your bio that you prefer to resolve PROB instead of N/A, is that because you don't want to tie up people's mana with a high chance of N/A resolution, or is there another reason?
Personally, the risk of a whale trying to swing the market at the end dissuades me from betting more than having my mana tied up for a long period of time with a high chance of resolving N/A.
@ahalekelly yeah, I wouldn't want to profit on a market by market making or anticipating movement and then have those earnings taken back.
@BenjaminIkuta doing that is still worth doing though, as long as there's a decent chance it doesn't resolve N/A.
If there's a high chance it resolves PROB then whales have a big incentive to try and snipe the market at the last minute.
One potential countermeasure is to close trading far in advance of the resolution, so that it's still uncertain at closing time whether it will resolve PROB.
You could also resolve PROB when it's still uncertain and then re-resolve if the conditional actually happens, to avoid tying peoples money up for that period. But people might still swing it just for the league profits though, if you make paper profits when it resolves PROB and then take losses then it re-resolves the next month, leagues will only count the profits and not the losses since the losses didn't happen in the month as the trade. That aspect of the leagues system seems really suboptimal.
None of these are great but N/A or closing the market when it's still uncertain and then resolving PROB if it doesn't happen seem to create the least bad incentives.