Will Seattle, WA have 5 or more days of bad air quality in the summer of 2022?
Basic
8
Ṁ776
resolved Oct 1
Resolved
NO
This market resolves YES if Seattle has five or more days of >=100 PM2.5 air quality between 5/7/2022 and 9/30/2022. The days do not need to be consecutive. For reference, this criteria would have resolved YES in 2017, 2018, and 2020, and NO in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2019, and 2021. Data source: https://aqicn.org/city/usa/washington/seattle/duwamish (Though I'll use an adjacent measurement station if this one goes offline, has anomalous data compared to the rest of the region, etc.) This market will resolve on 10/1/2022. Initial probability was decided using the base rate for the past 8 years, for which data from the linked source was available.
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https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/weather/seattle-in-for-smoky-hot-stretch-but-it-wont-last-long/

@bcongdon https://twitter.com/kseattleweather/status/1568648708937650176?s=46&t=M-EWl74rgQfT1Ex-wAM1tA

I see 0 days above 100 PM2.5-AQI so far this year, but wildfires could still change that.

NIFC predicts above normal potential for wildfires in northern CA from June-Aug, and in central WA in July-Aug: https://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf

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