Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if Argentina’s country risk (Riesgo País), as measured by JPMorgan's Emerging Markets Bond Index (EMBI / EM B I Global Diversified), falls below 500 basis points at any point between the market's creation and August 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.

The primary sources of truth for resolution will be the daily closing or intraday values of the "RIESGO PAIS" index reported by Rava Bursátil or Ámbito Financiero

Background:

Argentina's country risk measures the yield spread between Argentine sovereign bonds and US Treasury bonds, reflecting the perceived default risk. In late 2025, JPMorgan shifted Argentine debt from its real-time EMBI+ index to the daily-updated EMBI Global Diversified (EMBIGD).

During the first half of 2026, fiscal discipline and a credit rating upgrade by S&P Global Ratings helped compress Argentina's country risk to an eight-year low of approximately 403 basis points in June 2026. However, by mid-August 2026, external financial pressures and local dynamics triggered a bond sell-off, pushing the country risk back up to the high 490s, putting the critical 500-basis-point threshold back in play.

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