Based on credible news reports of a nation that did not previously have a national bitcoin reserve (e.g. El Salvador already having one doesn't count) implementing one in 2025.

• If it is almost certain they will (i.e. they've passed laws and orders to do so) this question will resolve YES even if they've not yet physically purchased the bitcoins.

• It doesn't have to be called that. If they have it as a reserve asset among other assets it still counts.

• It has to be a national reserve. State (US) or region/county-level do not count unless federally ordered.

• Update 2025-02-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications:

  • Spot BTC ETFs count: Governments using ETFs to hold bitcoin are eligible, as this avoids self-custody technicalities.

  • Federal Sovereign Wealth Funds count: These are included in the criteria.

  • Indirect ownership by government-owned entities counts: Holdings by such entities are acceptable if done intentionally as a reserve.

The resolution still hinges on whether the federal government/leadership intentionally establishes a national bitcoin reserve. Incidental or accidental holdings (e.g., bitcoins seized by the FBI) are not considered to fulfill the criteria.