Resolution criteria

• Resolve YES if, by market close, any of the following explicitly report that the Dallas ICE shooter left a “manifesto” (a document, letter, or online post authored by the shooter that sets out motives/ideology): (a) FBI, DHS, ICE, or Dallas PD; or (b) at least two independent major outlets. Example official sources to check: FBI Dallas newsroom and DHS press releases. (fbi.gov)

• Resolve NO if no such qualifying report exists by market close.

• Exclusions: slogans or short messages on ammo/graffiti; unconfirmed leaks; generic prior social posts unless authorities/major outlets explicitly label them a “manifesto.” In case of conflicting reports, require an official confirmation or two independent major outlets.

Background

• On September 24, 2025, a gunman fired from a rooftop at the ICE Dallas field office; the shooter died of a self-inflicted gunshot. Authorities are investigating it as targeted violence, noting “anti‑ICE” messages on ammunition. No manifesto has been publicly reported as of this date. (fbi.gov)

Considerations

• Prior statements about “anti‑ICE” messages on ammunition alone do not meet the manifesto threshold for this market, nor does the radioactive fallout map that he placed on his car. (reuters.com)

• Messages sent to at least 3 different people stating a clear plan to commit the attack (and his motivations) will be counted as a partial YES depending on how in-depth or consistent they were. However, priority will be placed on any written letter/document when considering the resolution.