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MANIFOLD
Are the Microsoft outage and FAA ground stop meaningfully related?
5
Ṁ1kṀ704
Dec 31
26%
chance

I will resolve this once we understand more about the causes of each incident. Different possibilities:

  • Unrelated phenomena. Resolves NO

  • Slightly related. For instance, lack of email access caused a miscommunication that played a role in cascading failures, but was not the main cause of the ground stop. Resolves NO.

  • Significantly related. For instance, Microsoft server failures played a major role in whatever is behind the FAA ground stop. Resolves YES.

  • Shared root cause. For instance, a coordinated cyberattack. Resolves YES.

These criteria are subjective and may allow for weird edge cases. Sorry.

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