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MANIFOLD
When will a frontier OpenAI model with native audio support be released?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ50
2027
February 27, 2027
27%
Before Oct 2026
38%
Before Jan 2027
63%
Before Jun 2027
72%
Before Jan 2028

Criteria:

  • the model must be OpenAI's most capable public model at launch

  • it must be able to process audio natively, in a similar way to how images are processed today, not through tools

  • It must demonstrate rudimentary understanding of non-speech audio

gpt-4o would have met the criteria at the time, but it has since been superseded. This market resolves when a new model is released fitting these criteria, in or after 2026.

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