Nectome has recently published a debut post on LessWrong, detailing the last 10 years of work we've done creating a new reliable form of personal end-of-life preservation for eventual revival. What should we cover in our next post?
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I'm not sure if you'd class it under Lady of the Lake or Parable of the San Diego Frozen Zoo, but the DHCA argument and a review of Goto et al 2021 (w/ link to Hayworth's video on that) would be on my list of things for a next post.
@Gurkenglas What sort of market would you find convincing evidence that people predict that preservation works? I'm a bit stuck on the phrasing.
@aurelia_song hmm. i was thinking a market about in what year you'll concede that you were wrong, as would let people buy a year and submit arguments for you to review; another option could be to predict how many people will buy your preservations by some time.
@Gurkenglas well it's tricky. Say that there was a snake oil salesman who put out a market that said, "when will I, the snake oil salesman, become convinced that the snake oil I'm selling doesn't work??". I would probably bet that they would not change their mind, but that doesn't have anything to do with whether I think the snake oil is legit.
If the snake oil guy was, like, really charismatic, and put out a market saying "how much snake oil do you think I can sell?", again I would probably bet "a lot of snake oil". But that's more me thinking that he can sell things. I'd bet that homeopathy would sell a lot this year too.
I want a market that's actually tied somehow to the truth of the preservation claim. Any thoughts?
@aurelia_song Manifold markets are not so good at predictions spanning more than a few years. In theory, a quite useful market would be one betting not in mana but in e.g. index fund shares, on whether revival will succeed. Your customers could bet YES in order to be rich when they wake up. You could bet NO on revival being successful by 2100 in order to pay for some of the upkeep around then.
In practice we must resolve by what people will think within the next few years. You could predict the results of a poll of academics. You could pass the buck to less grounded prediction aggregation websites like https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3331/ . You could run a bundle of markets, each predicting what a particular prominent third party will think in a few years. You could do an options chain, giving a probability distribution over what the second-hand market price will be for your transferrable preservations in a few years.
@Gurkenglas here's an example of the latter https://dev.manifold.markets/Gurkenglas/what-will-be-the-market-price-of-au-nSqERsU9q8 though of course a real options chain would avoid the issue of robustly defining "market price" by backing each option with the power to buy or sell a preservation at some price.
