Will my trading profits be lower than @ManifoldMarkets at any point in the next year?
14
150
แน€250
resolved Mar 30
Resolved
YES

It's definitely possible if I keep up the gambling.

Get แน€200 play money

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resolved YES because of the 20 million mana profit spike

That's an ... interesting choice?

I personally don't think this is the right resolution, why should a site bug matter?

@audrey yeah I don't know about this one my dude

@Joshua eh, the market doesnโ€™t specify that bugs are ignored โ€ฆ there was certainly a moment when the displayed profit of manifold was higher than of audrey. subjective but I think itโ€™s a fair resolution

I personally think it's just ... the wrong resolution, in that you can't really make the case that anyone who was trading on this would've wanted it to resolve YES if there was a bug when they traded. Like imagine there's a market "what will the maximum temperature on earth be in 2024 as measured by noaa.gov/something.xlsx" and one entry is a sensor error and says 10k degrees farenheit. I don't think the market should resolve based on that.

bought แน€10 of YES

mostly betting on the profit of the ManifoldMarkets account jumping up rapidly, it'd be pretty impressive for you to lose that much