Isn't GARM immediately getting dissolved a sign that the case has merit? Also does anyone have an opinion on what the base rate of such cases being thrown out is?

I'm not making this market to ask if the case has merit. I'm asking if it will get thrown out.

I'll try to get back to you on base rates later, I'm not sure

I was assuming that if the case has merit it's less likely to be thrown out

GARM dissolved (https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/08/technology/elon-musk-x-advertisers-boycott.html?unlocked_article_code=1.BU4.w6qC.a9xhblsV7AIp&smid=url-share). I bought a lot of NO shares, but then realized a judge might throw it out because of the dissolution, so quickly sold. Still unsure, though!

Garm is not the defendant, WFA is

To clarify, if the judge rules against X but doesn't dismiss the case before that, does this resolve NO?

That is correct. Market resolves YES if and only if judge dismisses case