Will the Sealand Oil Platform still be standing by February 2026?
13
Ṁ1kṀ1.8kJan 31
97%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If it's still standing but in a seriously bad state of repair then this resolves to percentage based on how bad the damage is. Which would be somewhat subjective. 75% for no facilities, 50% for rotting and somewhat dangerous to explore, 25% for a ruin.
I have sold my stake and will not bet further.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
The platform has been around since 1942, or in other words for the past 81 years (see the English Wikipedia article, which is only partly cited but enough that I don’t really worry).
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Sealand be officially and unambiguously recognized by another country before October 2029?
5% chance
Will the Titanic II be seaworthy by EOY 2029?
17% chance
Will the Eiffel Tower still be standing on June 30th, 2036?
96% chance
Will Nord Stream resume operations by 2026?
5% chance
Will oil be drilled for in the field of the Antarctic Weddell Sea region before 2030?
50% chance
Will any aircraft carrier be lost at sea before 2036?
42% chance
Statue of Liberty still standing by 2045?
83% chance
Will any seastead have a population of at least 100 permanent residents before 2030?
61% chance
Will openwater still be solvent by EOY2029
50% chance
Will China occupy the Second Thomas Shoal before 2027?
47% chance