Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if Brent Crude Oil closes at or above $120 per barrel on April 15, 2026. Resolution will be determined using the official closing price from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) at https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/prices.php or equivalent authoritative source (e.g CNBC, Bloomberg). If the market does not trade on April 15, 2026, the most recent trading day's close will be used.
Background
Brent Crude is the leading global price benchmark for Atlantic basin crude oils. Its price is influenced by a complex interplay of global supply and demand factors, geopolitical stability in oil-producing regions, OPEC+ production quotas, and broader macroeconomic conditions. Traders monitor these factors closely to predict volatility and price shifts in the energy markets.
This description was generated by AI.
¡ I'm leaving the probability/chance at 50% since you never know what might happen 🤷♀️
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People are also trading
@arnv I think its a fair guess that with futures falling so fast that physical spot prices will as well, but I'm not sure people are aware of how crazy the spread has gotten: https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/4/13/why-oil-prices-arent-what-you-think-and-what-it-means-for-global-supply
@ShaneBo TLDR of this is that physical delivery has seen spreads of +$35 or more per barrel above futures prices. This will contract, but definitely above 7% odds of it staying that way for another day or two
@AlS no, Brent is a type, a specific blend, of crude associated with North Sea oil production. What you are referring to as “crude” would likely be West Texas Intermediate (WTI), which is another blend associated with southern US production. Trading Economics and a few other sites tend to call WTI just plain “Crude”, because they’re centered on US markets, but it’s just one type.
@AlS if you drill down on the attached, for instance, you’ll see that the price they are referring to as “Crude” is dependent on WTI specifically.
@acertain yes, it’s on the eia closing spot price – should resolve about 1 day after this market closes.
