Resolution Criteria

The shutdown began Saturday and is expected to last until at least Tuesday, when the House is set to hold critical votes on a group of bills to fund the federal government. This market resolves YES if the partial government shutdown ends before 11:59 PM ET on Wednesday, February 5, 2026. Resolution will be confirmed via official announcements from the White House, House Speaker's office, or major news outlets (CNN, Reuters, AP News, NBC News) reporting that the shutdown has ended and funding has been restored. The shutdown ends when the House passes the funding package and the President signs it into law.

Background

The shutdown began Saturday (February 1, 2026) after Congress failed to pass funding legislation by the deadline. The proposed package would fund most departments through September but provide only a two-week extension for Homeland Security as lawmakers discuss potential reforms to federal immigration enforcement. Johnson told Fox News on Sunday that he is confident the package will pass by Tuesday.

Considerations

It is unclear if Johnson has the necessary GOP support to advance the package given his slim majority. GOP Reps. Anna Paulina Luna of Florida and Tim Burchett of Tennessee told reporters they will vote "yes" in a party-line procedural vote on Tuesday to advance the funding package passed by the Senate last week. The two were seen as barriers to getting the funding package across the finish line, but dropped their opposition after a meeting at the White House.

This description was generated by AI.