Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, between its creation on September 5, 2026, and September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, Iranian state military forces (including the regular military/Artesh or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps/IRGC) execute an attack that successfully strikes a U.S. military base or a military facility housing U.S. armed forces.

For the purposes of this market, a "strike" requires a projectile, missile, or drone to physically impact, detonate within the perimeter of, or cause documented damage or casualties at the targeted U.S. military facility.

• Exclusions:

  • Attacks that are fully intercepted, shot down, or land harmlessly outside the facility's perimeter without causing documented damage or casualties will resolve the market to NO.

  • Any attacks that occurred prior to the market's creation (such as the attacks on September 1–3, 2026) are excluded and will not count toward a YES resolution.

• Sources of Truth: Resolution will be determined using official statements from the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), or consensus reports from major independent international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, Agence France-Presse). Claims of successful strikes issued solely by Iranian state-affiliated media (such as Tasnim, Fars, or IRIB) that are denied or unconfirmed by U.S. or independent third-party sources will not be sufficient to resolve the market to YES.

If no confirmed physical strike on a U.S. military base occurs within the specified timeframe, the market will resolve to NO.

Background

Following the outbreak of the U.S.–Iran war in February 2026, direct military hostilities flared up again in late August and early September 2026 after a brief lull. On September 1, 2026, U.S. Central Command launched precise strikes on IRGC targets in southern Iran.

In response, the IRGC and the Iranian regular military launched coordinated ballistic missile and drone attacks on September 1, 2, and 3, targeting regional bases hosting U.S. troops, including Ali Al-Salem and Ahmad al-Jaber Air Bases in Kuwait, Al Minhad Air Base in the UAE, and facilities in Jordan and Bahrain. While Iranian state media claimed these retaliatory strikes caused heavy damage and U.S. casualties, U.S. defense officials and regional governments reported that the incoming threats were intercepted and did not impact the military installations. This market tracks whether any subsequent Iranian actions in September 2026 successfully bypass defensive networks to physically strike a U.S. military facility.

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