Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, at any point from August 1, 2026, through August 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran launch a direct military strike targeting a United States military base or installation. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

Definitions & Details:

• Direct strike: This includes the launch of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, rockets, or one-way attack drones/UAVs that target, impact, or are intercepted in the immediate vicinity of a U.S. military facility.

• Iran: "Iran" refers to the state's official military forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) or the regular Iranian armed forces (Artesh). Strikes executed solely by regional proxy militias (e.g., the Houthis in Yemen, or Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq) do not qualify, unless official U.S. or international defense reports state that the strike was directly launched by Iranian state forces, or the Iranian government/military officially claims direct responsibility for the attack.

• U.S. military base or installation: Any official military base, outpost, airbase, or facility hosting U.S. armed forces (such as bases in Jordan, Iraq, Syria, or elsewhere in the region). Strikes targeting U.S. Navy vessels, carrier strike groups, or commercial shipping do not count.

• Source of truth: Official statements, press releases, or briefings from the U.S. Department of Defense (defense.gov), U.S. Central Command (centcom.mil), or consensus reporting from major reputable international news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, Bloomberg).

Background

Following the outbreak of direct conflict between the United States and Iran in early 2026, regional hostilities have escalated significantly. In late July 2026, Iran launched multiple ballistic missiles targeting a U.S. military base hosting troops in Jordan. This prompted a heavy wave of retaliatory airstrikes by U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) against IRGC command centers, missile sites, and drone facilities inside Iran. Traders will assess whether this pattern of direct exchanges results in another Iranian strike on a U.S. base during the month of August.

This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.