This market resolves to YES if the price of Bitcoin (BTC) reaches or exceeds $85,000 USD at any point before the Strait of Hormuz is officially designated as "freely open" by a consensus of international maritime governing bodies or major geopolitical authorities. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
For the price of Bitcoin, the market will use the daily closing price as reported on CoinMarketCap.
Regarding the status of the Strait of Hormuz, "freely open" refers to the absence of significant state-imposed blockades, active military seizure of commercial vessels, or officially declared closures by relevant regional authorities (primarily Iran) that impede international shipping traffic. In the event of ambiguity, resolution will rely on reports from authoritative maritime security organizations, such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO) or major news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press) confirming that shipping traffic is unencumbered by formal state intervention.
Background
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime chokepoint through which a significant portion of the world's liquified natural gas and oil transit. Its status is frequently subject to geopolitical tension, particularly involving Iran, which has historically threatened to close the strait in response to international sanctions or military pressure.
Bitcoin's price is highly volatile and influenced by macroeconomic factors, regulatory developments, and market sentiment. Traders should note that defining "freely open" is inherently subjective; while explicit closure is easy to verify, varying degrees of regional tension may complicate the interpretation of when the strait is no longer considered "freely open."
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Update 2026-06-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The resolution window has been extended (to approximately July 15, 2026) due to ambiguity following Iran's June 22 closure declaration and ongoing maritime conflicts reported June 25–27. The creator is waiting for authoritative sources (IMO, Reuters, AP) to issue a conclusive post-conflict status report before resolving. No new resolution rules are being introduced.
1,000Notice: The resolution window for this market has been extended to July 15, 2026. Reason for Extension:Per our market rules, the definition of "freely open" requires authoritative verification from maritime security organizations (such as the IMO) and global news outlets (Reuters/AP) that shipping traffic is unencumbered by formal state intervention.The real-world situation remains highly fluid and ambiguous due to the June 22 official closure declaration by Iranian authorities, followed by the erratic maritime activity and conflicts reported over the June 25–27 weekend.Because authoritative sources have not yet issued a conclusive post-conflict status report on whether the Strait has officially transitioned back to being unencumbered, resolving the market immediately would result in an unfair settlement based on incomplete data. To protect market integrity and ensure a fair outcome for all participants, the resolution window is being extended to allow for clear, verifiable reports to emerge.All current positions remain active. No new rules are being introduced; we are strictly allowing the agreed-upon verification sources the necessary time to provide a definitive verdict.