Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if an official de Jure AND de facto bilateral ceasefire agreement between Saudi Arabia (or the Saudi-led coalition) and the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah) is publicly announced before November 1, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.

To resolve YES, the ceasefire agreement must be confirmed by official statements from both parties or by an official mediating body, such as the UN Special Envoy for Yemen or the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Oman.

Edge cases:

• Unilateral announcements: A unilateral declaration of a ceasefire by either side without mutual agreement or acceptance by the opposing party does not qualify and will resolve NO.

• Localized or humanitarian truces: Informal, unconfirmed reports, or limited local pauses in fighting do not qualify unless formally framed as a bilateral ceasefire agreement by both entities.

• If no formal ceasefire agreement is reached before November 1, 2026, the market resolves NO.

Background

Following the expiration of the UN-mediated truce initially established in April 2022, Saudi Arabia and Houthi representatives held indirect and direct peace negotiations facilitated by Oman. Despite drafting roadmaps for peace and humanitarian steps, formal implementation remained stalled.

Renewed escalations in 2026—including Houthi offensives along Yemen's Red Sea coast, cross-border drone and missile strikes targeting Saudi infrastructure, and coalition airstrikes—have heightened military tensions and spurred renewed diplomatic pressure to secure a binding ceasefire.