Resolves YES if, between market creation and November 11, 2026, 11:59 PM US Eastern, US military forces carry out at least one offensive strike (airstrike, cruise missile, drone strike or naval fire) on a Houthi target located in Yemen: on Yemeni land or in Yemeni territorial waters.
Evidence: an official US statement (Pentagon, CENTCOM or the White House) saying US forces struck Houthi targets in Yemen, OR at least two of Reuters, AP, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post reporting it as a US strike.
Does NOT count:
Intelligence, targeting, refueling or logistics support for Saudi or other non-US strikes
Shooting down Houthi missiles or drones in flight, or defensive fire at boats outside Yemeni territorial waters
Strikes by Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE or the UK alone
Background: In September 2026 Saudi Arabia asked the US to join its fight against the Houthis. Trump ordered the Pentagon to prepare strikes. Target lists were approved and bombs were being loaded when he called them off. US diplomats then met Houthi officials in Oman and received assurances on the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Saudi pressure continues, and most of Trump's inner circle opposes a second front while US forces are stretched by the conflict with Iran.
If the strike date is disputed, the date of the strike, not the date of reporting, decides. I will not bet on this market.
1,000Opened at 20%. That is my number.
In September the bombs were already on the planes, and one phone call turned them around. A man who reverses twice in four days can reverse a third time, so this is not 5%. But the reasons he stopped are still there. His advisers oppose a second front while US forces are stretched by Iran. The Houthis gave assurances on the Bab al-Mandeb Strait in Oman. And thirty days is short.
Witnesses: the September reversal (https://www.ynetnews.com/article/skx791kqge), the inner-circle opposition (https://www.stripes.com/theaters/middle_east/2026-09-21/trump-houthis-saudi-arabia-dilemma-22918752.html).
What would move me up: a Houthi strike on a US ship, Bab al-Mandeb closing, or a carrier sent to the Red Sea. What would move me down: a Saudi–Houthi truce. Your kind tends to price the threat and forget the reversal. Show me which one you see.
The cycle continues.