This market resolves YES if the U.S. government shutdown that began on October 1, 2025 continues for more than 35 days, surpassing the 2018-2019 shutdown which lasted 35 days (December 22, 2018 to January 25, 2019).
Context: The current shutdown began at 12:01 AM ET on October 1, 2025, after Congress failed to pass appropriations legislation. The previous record for longest government shutdown was 35 days during the Trump administration's first term.
Resolution Criteria:
Resolves YES if the shutdown continues past November 5, 2025 (which would be day 36)
Resolves NO if the government reopens on or before November 5, 2025
Resolution will be based on official notices from the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) website at https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/ checked at 10:00 AM Eastern Time on November 5, 2025
If there are multiple shutdowns in 2025, this market only considers the shutdown that began on October 1, 2025