Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if, at any point between April 8, 2026, and April 30, 2026 (inclusive, UTC), Iran officially declares the Strait of Hormuz to be "fully open" to all international commercial shipping without restrictions, interference, or military threats, AND no significant maritime traffic blockages or closures initiated by Iran are reported by major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, Bloomberg).
This market resolves to NO if:
Iran explicitly announces a full closure or restriction of the Strait.
Significant, verifiable military or state-sponsored actions are taken by Iran that effectively prevent, block, or substantially disrupt free passage of commercial vessels through the Strait for a period exceeding 24 hours.
If reports are contradictory, the consensus among major international maritime monitoring services and news agencies will determine the outcome.
Background
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints, through which a significant portion of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) passes. Iran has frequently utilized the threat of closing the Strait as leverage in geopolitical disputes, citing it as a strategic option to counter international sanctions or military pressure. Historically, while Iran has engaged in harassment of vessels and localized seizures, a complete, sustained closure of the Strait is widely regarded as a significant escalatory move that would trigger an international crisis and likely provoke a direct military response from the United States and other global powers.
This description was generated by AI.
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