Will the Lower Thames Crossing gain Development Consent?
4
140Ṁ507
Aug 1
93%
chance

The Lower Thames Crossing is a proposed road tunnel east of London connecting Kent to the M25, bypassing the Dartford Crossing.

It's presently undergoing the consenting process and has not yet been awarded a DCO. This application has already been withdrawn and reinstated once, and the process has been reported as the most expensive planning application in UK history: https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/lower-thames-crossing-applications-267m-cost-highlights-complexity-of-planning-system-06-12-2022/

The planning inspectorate has now reported and the last step remaining is the SoS to confirm the final government decision on the project. The SoS has approximately 3 months to make the decision, and following this there are 6 weeks for an appeal (Judicial Review) to be filed.

Resolves YES if approval is granted and not appealed (or any appeal fails). If it's not granted, the application is withdrawn or there's a successful Judicial Review that quashes the consent this will resolve NO. (Note regarding appeals - a successful judicial review could quash the decision and remit it back to the Planning Inspectorate/SoS to re-make the decision and it could then be re-approved. In this case I'll resolve YES as long as the process restarts from the middle rather than the beginning).

https://national-infrastructure-consenting.planninginspectorate.gov.uk/projects/TR010032

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@traders The government have now delayed their decision until the 23rd of May 2025 (!), so I have extended the market closure date. Seems like a slightly negative side of neutral sentiment to me, but in any case the resolution will have to wait.

Very useful update today, still waiting on a decision!

@traders Due to the upcoming general election, the SoS decision deadline has been extended. The result is now not expected until the 4th of October. I have therefore extended the close date of this market.

https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statements/detail/2024-05-24/hcws506

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