Will Fuchsia ship in a non-Google product this decade?
4
43
70
2030
50%
chance

Fuchsia is Google's open-source operating system built on a capability-based security kernel called Zircon. Think of it as a weird midpoint between Android and seL4.

Thus far it's been limited to Google's Nest products. Open-source hardware support is likewise limited to emulators or the Nest's SoC. There's rumors about collaboration with Samsung and hardware support for Qualcomm SoCs, but no ROMs or public dev kits.

Capability-based operating systems have interesting security implications. We've been stuck with variations on Linux for a while. Fuchsia is already proven on Google's consumer IoT gear - will we see buy-in from anyone else?

Resolution:

Resolves yes if and only if a non-development board (e.g. not a NUC, not a Khadas VIM3) product (e.g. Nest Hub or Nest Hub Max) running Fuchsia is manufactured and sold by a company other than Google. (e.g. Samsung or some IoT company.) Pre-orders will not count unless they ship before close date. Since it's open source, viable phone ROMs on non-Pixel hardware will count - but only if generally usable by enthusiasts, not done one-off as a proof of concept.

Resolves no if the project is cancelled in classic Google fashion. In case of awkward attempts to foist it off onto the Apache Software Foundation or similar 3rd party, clock keeps running to see if it ends up shipping on hardware.

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