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The bet has ended early
https://twitter.com/jdcmedlock/status/1653452817179508736?s=46&t=COELKiXWSR0g62w8cbrCzA
@NathanNguyen I think the market title is clear enough on this, but just in case, I posted resolution criteria immediately after creating this market. Please re-read it:
https://manifold.markets/alangrow/will-balaji-win-his-hyperinflation#Asyzwa3azlR5n2TX7qx7
You are correct that the first condition has been satisfied. The second condition, which begins with AND, will not be known until the June 17th close date.
@alangrow I see. Resolution criteria are usually in the description rather than the comments btw
Yes bettors, if you truly believe, you can make a killing buying out of the money call options on bitcoin for May. CME provides bitcoin options, which means you can probably do this through your Robinhood or other brokerages, but if you distrust traditional finance, I think there are a lot of defi options protocols
@Sinclair eh, idk, I bet 1 mana which worth << 1$ for me. I am not sure if CME will accept <1$ bets but even if they will, the pain of going through registration will cost much more (I don't have Robinhood etc. too). Maybe DeFi would be easier but gas would be prohibetavely expensive. Also, I already have very significant exposure in Bitcoin. I don't want to have more for Kelly criterion kind of reasons.
Okay Balaji has now laid out his thesis in longtweet form here: https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1636827051419389952?s=20
He's making two $1M bets, one with jdcmedlock, one with a TBD counterparty.
I will resolve this market YES iff:
Either one of these bets go through, and credibly results in an exchange of 1BTC for $1M by midnight UTC on July 1st. (I'm padding here to allow for some pre-bet setup time and post-bet verification time.)
AND, Coindesk shows 1BTC > $1M at market close. https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin/