Jun 17
Will Balaji win his hyperinflation bet that $1M < 1BTC in 90 days?
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ScottLawrence avatar
Scott Lawrenceis predicting NO at 2%


Sinclair avatar
Sinclair Chenbought Ṁ3,000 of NO

Yes bettors, if you truly believe, you can make a killing buying out of the money call options on bitcoin for May. CME provides bitcoin options, which means you can probably do this through your Robinhood or other brokerages, but if you distrust traditional finance, I think there are a lot of defi options protocols

ValeryCherepanov avatar
Valery Cherepanovis predicting YES at 1%

@Sinclair eh, idk, I bet 1 mana which worth << 1$ for me. I am not sure if CME will accept <1$ bets but even if they will, the pain of going through registration will cost much more (I don't have Robinhood etc. too). Maybe DeFi would be easier but gas would be prohibetavely expensive. Also, I already have very significant exposure in Bitcoin. I don't want to have more for Kelly criterion kind of reasons.

Mason avatar

On the bet of Balaji's latest craze,
His prediction market is ablaze.
But with hyperinflation at play,
A million to beat Bitcoin? No way!

alangrow avatar
Alan Grow

Okay Balaji has now laid out his thesis in longtweet form here: https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1636827051419389952?s=20

He's making two $1M bets, one with jdcmedlock, one with a TBD counterparty.

I will resolve this market YES iff:

  • Either one of these bets go through, and credibly results in an exchange of 1BTC for $1M by midnight UTC on July 1st. (I'm padding here to allow for some pre-bet setup time and post-bet verification time.)

  • AND, Coindesk shows 1BTC > $1M at market close. https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin/