Will the Fed raise benchmark rates by 75bps in July?

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resolved Jul 28

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YES

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-28/fed-s-williams-sees-50-or-75-basis-point-hike-debated-in-july "The Fed raised its benchmark rate earlier this month by 75 basis points -- the biggest increase since 1994 -- to a range of 1.5% to 1.75%. Chair Jerome Powell told reporters after the meeting that officials could consider another 75 basis-point increase, or a 50 basis-point hike, when they meet next month. " #Economics

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bought Ṁ41 of YES

It resolves to NO if the Fed resolves to 100bps, right?

sold Ṁ21 of NO

@MP yes :)

sold Ṁ80 of YES

@akhil I think I will cut my exposition a little bit. Market is giving a 28% prob right now of a 100bps hike.

predicted YES

@MP Fair - I'm hoping/betting it's a shock based on the latest CPI numbers, and settles in a few days to the more likely 75bps.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

The yield curve currently gives a 77% likelyhood

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