Will Trump commute the sentence of Ross Ulbricht before his Presidency ends in 2028?
Will Trump commute the sentence of Ross Ulbricht before his Presidency ends in 2028?
16
100Ṁ26852028
99.3%
chance
1D
1W
1M
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"And if you vote for me, on Day One, I will commute the sentence of Ross Ulbricht," Trump promised at a speech before the Libertarian National Convention on May 25, 2024. Ross Ulbricht is the founder the Silk Road, an online marketplace that was used a wide diversity of products, including illegal drugs.
If Trump commutes the sentence of (or pardons) Ross Ulbricht before the scheduled end of his second Presidency on Jan 20, 2028 for charges related to his role as the creator and operator of the Silk Road, this will resolve as YES. Otherwise, it will resolve as NO.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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