Will the US ban feeding chicken shit to cows or pigs in 2025?
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12
Ṁ4140
2026
34%
chance

Resolves Yes if there's a nationwide ban on feeding chicken litter to either cows or pigs (doesn't require both).

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This practice was banned in 2004 because of concerns over BSE. The ban was lifted in 2008, I think mostly because of lobbying from the animal ag industry. The new FDA head has written about the problem of antibiotic use in animal ag https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/news/newsroom/news-releases/2018/06/a-call-for-doctors-to-lead-the-charge-for-antibiotic-free-foods. And tweeted earlier this year expressing concern over bird flu https://x.com/MartyMakary/status/1799168855555903932. During Covid he was earlyish to raise the alarm and was first-doses-first-pilled. In his 2024 book he says "Every year, there are stern warnings by experts of the possibility of a bird flu pandemic that could be catastrophic. It’s certainly possible. But instead of top government health officials showing concern and tracking it closely, how about fast-tracking basic research and development on a promising universal flu vaccine?". Cory Booker introduced a bill earlier this year to ban this https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/senate-bill/4562.

Seems like this is something that is politically doable, the guy in charge takes the issue seriously and is not too afraid to upset farmers. I also think that in a fight between concern for ag industry and future pandemics this admin will be more sympathetic to the industry than Bush's, also that BSE was much scarier than bird flu.

I'd say 25% for 2025 and 40% by 2029.

Would Trump care or bother?

bought Ṁ10 NO

Is it even nutritious for cows or pigs? Kinda surprised they'd do that, I know factory farming often does super cruel stuff but that just sounds both cruel and unprofitable

reposted

Feeding chicken coop litter (straw and chicken shit) to cows is banned in most developed countries but apparently practiced in the US, this could be how H5 bird flu first crossed to cows. The much more deadly avian strain of H5 flu is spread by the fecal-oral vector while the less deadly bovine H5 strain is spread by the respiratory-mucus vector. If a cow gets coinfected with both strains, it’s possible for the two strains to hybridize and become more dangerous. Seems crazy that this is legal! Source: beowulf888.

Seems like it’s banned in California for lactating dairy cows, only a nationwide ban for all cows resolves this market Yes.

It’s also used as a fertilizer for organic vegetables!

Adding pigs to this market, seems like that could be even more important since a virus in pigs would have an easier time crossing to humans. Either a ban for pigs or for cows resolves this market Yes.

The Telegraph: Ground-up chicken waste fed to cattle may be behind bird flu outbreak in US cows

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