US Inflation Rate on Election Day 2024?
Basic
12
Ṁ3233
resolved Oct 22
Resolved
YES
Above 1.0%
Resolved
YES
Above 2.0%
Resolved
N/A
Above 3.0%
Resolved
NO
Above 4.0%
Resolved
NO
Above 5.0%
Resolved
NO
Above 6.0%

All answers which are true resolve Yes, according to the US Urban Core Inflation (All Items Less Food and Energy) scheduled for release October 10th, 2024
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=rocU

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Resolved Above 3% to N/A due to conflict between the title and description

@ahalekelly The option "Above 3%" is not resolved yet, so the market is still open.

@Destiny3a152 @chrisjbillington the description says “US Urban Core Inflation (All Items Less Food and Energy)” for which I’m seeing 3.3%, but you guys seem to think this market should resolve to <3%? Am I making an error here or did you think was the all items inflation? In retrospect I should have said Core Inflation in the title.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

@ahalekelly Resolving based on 3.3 makes sense to me.

It was clear to me you meant core. In future, I’d also be explicit if you want the y/y change (not the m/m change annualized for example).

@ahalekelly Don't remember if I was taking a gamble on core inflation being lower or if I neglected to read the description (for at least some of my bets). On the title alone though, the market being about core inflation is unexpected IMHO, so makes sense if I or others missed it.

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