Where will I work on 2025-11-01?
➕
Plus
9
Ṁ1900
2025
33%
OpenAI
5%
Other
5%
Anthropic
5%
Google DeepMind
4%
I will not be employed
4%
Alphabet but not Google DeepMind
4%
xAI
4%
The Center for Humane Technology
4%
Protocol Labs
4%
Center for AI Safety
4%
Alignment Research Center
4%
Future of Life Institute
4%
Ought
4%
METR
4%
AI Safety Institute
3%
MIRI
1.9%
WIkimedia Foundation
1.9%
OpenStreetMap Foundation
1.9%
Mozilla Foundation

I've lived in USA and worked at OpenAI since May 2022, first as resident, then doing research, in reinforcement learning team (which later ended up becoming the whole ChatGPT-research organization), then alignment/superalignment on scalable oversight, now safety systems - model safety. I went to OpenAI because I wanted to contribute to AI safety and that's still what I want to put my work energy towards. I'm on an H-1b and waiting in the green card queue.

The list here is just quickly put together from gpt4o plus light filtering, to generate more options. As of 2024-11-01, my top guess would be OpenAI (by priors even if nothing else), then orgs where I could do relevant AI safety. Unemployed might happen if I happen to be between places when market closes - but given H-1b rules, that would likely not be a long timespan. My immigration situation might also unexpectedly get better. Or I might decide to leave the US.

2024-11-01 is of course in the only correct date format in existence, defined by ISO 8601.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

What would happen in the hypothetical situation where, say, Alphabet buys OpenAI (obviously not going to happen, but maybe would happen with some of the other companies listed)? Would both resolve to YES if you were still at OpenAI?

@BobLoblaw hmm good question

If I picked "I'll pick all that applies" that would be giving as much credit to "huge conglomerate" and "tiny 3-person startup they acquired last month".

I'd normally go with "if I work somewhere that got acquired, I'll resolve to the acquiring entity", but I've sorta set myself up by splitting Google deepmind vs other alphabet.

If I went with "will resolve to most specific true option" I'd be setting myself up for "senior meat packing technician on team 4 at the meatpacking plant in Greater Middleton, Wustershire".

Thinking about it, I think the last one is the one I dislike the least. Might get pretty spammy and might be harder for me to aggregate ("come on market will I work in AI safety or not? can you not answer in the form of 300 options with tiny percentages?"). But I hate that idea less than the other options.

Not committing to that yet. If anyone has other ideas how to set the rules in a good way, lmk.

Maybe if we only care about straightforward "X acquired Y", I could just set the resolution rule such that in that case Y wins if it still somewhat meaningfully exists.

opened a Ṁ1 OpenAI YES at 13% order

Fun market! Thanks for sharing your life details, and good luck with the visa

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules