Resolves based on whether Jerome Powell is convicted on any charges from the ones he referred to in yesterday's video. I will add more specific criteria as more details come out.
Update 2026-01-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market close date has been extended to EOY 2028 to allow sufficient time for resolution. The creator may extend further if there is still an active case at that time.
Update 2026-05-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The DOJ has dropped its criminal probe of Fed Chair Powell, which likely means this market will resolve No.
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@MachiNi Good catch, should've set a longer time horizon. I just updated it to EOY 2028. I expect we'll have an answer before then, and I'm not opposed to extending if there is still an active case at that time.