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MANIFOLD
2026 Oregon governor race margin of victory?
4
Ṁ325Ṁ163
2027
4.2 %
expected
10%
Below -3%
4%
-3.5% to -1.5%
4%
-1.5% to -0.5%
4%
-0.5% to 0%
4%
0% to 0.5%
4%
0.5% to 1.0%
4%
1.0% to 1.5%
4%
1.5% to 2.0%
5%
2.0% to 3.0%
5%
3.0% to 4.5%
7%
4.5% to 6.5%
47%
Above 6.5%

For purposes of this market, the MOV is defined as the Democratic party candidate's (currently Tina Kotek) popular vote percentage less the Republican candidate's (currently Christine Drazan) popular vote share.

Resolution will use official final vote counts, not media-reported rounded margins. In the highly unlikely event of an exact bucket boundary result, the higher bucket will be chosen.

Politics
US Politics
2026 Midterms
2026 US Election
Oregon
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