Is there extraterrestrial life within 10 light years from the solar system?
Mini
8
229
2035
47%
chance

Distance from the center of the Sun to the object at the time of discovery (so visiting asteroid or spacecraft counts).

Life transported from AND originating on Earth does not count.

The close date will be extended if needed.

Resolves YES on conclusive evidence, NO once the solar vicinity has been throughly explored and understood.

Inspired by the markets created by @RemNi e.g. /RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-939ead04dfb1

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

Per https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nearest_stars_and_brown_dwarfs#List there are exactly fifteen stars within 10 light years of the solar system (at least to our knowledge):

  • the Sun (duh!)

  • the three stars of Alpha Centauri, all sun-like

  • Barnard's Star, a red dwarf

  • Luhman 16, which consists of two stars, both brown dwarf

  • WISE 0855−0714, a brown dwarf

  • Wolf 359, a red dwarf

  • Lalande 21185, a red dwarf

  • Sirius, which consists of two stars

  • Gliese 65, which consists of two stars

So if we can enumerate all the planets of these 15 stars and check each one for biosignatures, we'll be done.

Another market that won't be resolved in my lifetime.

@ProjectVictory That's why you get the money invested back in loans, isn't it

More related questions