Will Time publish an article on Manifold in 2023?
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resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if Time publishes an article on Manifold or Manifold.love before the end of 2023. Manifold or Manifold.love must be the subject of at least half of the article.

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Might need a 2024 edition of this!

@Eliza Too late. It already happened.

it's over. Dec 25 issue is out. Next one is in 2 weeks

After doing absolutely nothing but Buy Yes on a weekly basis for over a month, the largest Yes holder saw new information today that caused him to sell Yes to 16%, twice, and place a limit order for No at 25%.

This is a notable change, yet the market remains at a higher percentage right now than it was at the time Panfilo noticed the interesting new developments.

What gives?

The information Panfilo was acting on was the publication of this article:

https://time.com/6457597/ai-dating/

It is written by the same reporter that Austin was talking to, and talks about dating in a modern world, but does not mention Manifold at all. I think it is a reasonable assumption to make, to think they decided to take the article in a different direction after not finding any strong ways to insert Manifold into the discussion. Note that the previous reports I've seen from the team regarding fielding questions from Time were specifically about manifold.love, the dating site.

There is also a possibility this is one article in a series of multiple articles about dating that Will Henshall could be working on.....

@Eliza Thanks, I didn't see Panfilo's comments about this, thought you were referring earlier to them noticing just that there were few Time issues remaining this year. That seems compelling!

(feature request: reply to comment with sell)

@chrisjbillington It was something I saw on Discord earlier in the day -- I sold all my Yes shares immediately but was surprised the market moved the other direction.

predicted YES

@Eliza I think the upward movement was just me hedging for my "conditional on NO Time article, NO high MAUs" bet.

predicted YES

@Eliza Well clearly I didn’t panic ENOUGH this time

On the NYT article, these were the top profit makers. I am not betting against Austin, FUH, and S G on this one 🙃

predicted YES

I'm definitely over-exposed but we got two issues left and I think we're due for a hit piece (sorry).

AustinboughtṀ100YES

👀

The year is kinda over

Will time magazine have an article about manifold? Easiest No of my life.

@AmandaSmith Feel free to take my limits order at 45% and 47%

predicted NO

@bohaska sure I can blow a few hundred at it good luck

predicted YES

@bohaska Whoops, I ran out of money...

predicted YES

@bohaska Amanda TROLLED gangam style

predicted YES

@Tumbles Well, he didn't meet my 45% limit order, he only bought to 47%, and I filled that one completely, so he wasn't scammed

predicted YES

@bohaska Alright I'll downgrade it from gangam style to despacito

predicted YES

What does Chris know that Austin doesn’t!?

predicted NO

@Panfilo Literally nothing, I'm betting NO to see if anyone (e.g. Austin) pushes back because that info is relevant to my other betting.

@chrisjbillington Happy to take your mana!

predicted NO

@bohaska Appreciate the information!

predicted NO

@bohaska I mean maybe I guess but I honestly would put 1000 mana toward no on this.

Just no way this small site is impactful enough for a national magazine even if its a great concept.

@AmandaSmith see the new york times talk about this based growing site https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/08/technology/prediction-markets-manifold-manifest.html
(maybe it won't happen but i don't think anyone can know that yet except maybe TIME employees, so i would encourage you not to put 1000M on NO)

predicted NO

@TheBayesian wow very neat payealled but I am scummy

predicted YES

@AmandaSmith same, but you can see the article title and the website that concur with this possibility that MM might and does get national media attention

predicted NO

@TheBayesian well I suppose this doesn't nescesarily mean a print article so my confidence is sown a lot.

@AmandaSmith The article is supposed to be about manifold.love, not Manifold itself. That website has less than 1000 users created (not even active users). I don't see how that's going to pass any editorial review.