Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before January 1, 2026, any of the following events occur concerning Saudi Arabia's NEOM project:

• Pause: An official announcement or credible reporting indicates a temporary halt in the project's construction or development activities.

• Downsizing: Official statements or reputable news sources confirm a reduction in the project's scale, scope, or budget.

• Lawsuit: Legal action is initiated against the NEOM project by individuals, organizations, or governments, as reported by credible sources.

Verification will be based on reports from reputable news organizations such as Reuters, Bloomberg, or the Financial Times. If none of these events are reported by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

NEOM is a $500 billion mega-project in Saudi Arabia, envisioned as a futuristic city and a centerpiece of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's Vision 2030 initiative to diversify the economy beyond oil. The project includes ambitious developments like "The Line," a 170-kilometer linear city, and the Trojena ski resort. In recent years, NEOM has faced challenges, including leadership changes, budgetary constraints, and reports of scaling back certain aspects of the project. In November 2024, CEO Nadhmi al-Nasr departed, and Aiman al-Mudaifer was appointed as acting CEO. Reports have also indicated a reprioritization of project elements, focusing on components essential for hosting global sporting events. (reuters.com)

Considerations

• Financial Constraints: Fluctuating oil prices and global economic conditions have impacted Saudi Arabia's budget, potentially affecting funding for large-scale projects like NEOM.

• Project Scope Adjustments: There have been reports of scaling back certain aspects of NEOM, such as reducing the length and population targets for "The Line." (ft.com)

• Legal and Human Rights Issues: The project has faced criticism and legal challenges related to the displacement of local communities and human rights concerns. (en.wikipedia.org)

Traders should monitor official announcements and credible news reports for developments related to pauses, downsizing, or legal actions concerning the NEOM project to inform their predictions.