When will Israel next strike Iranian territory? The window opens when this market is created and ends on November 30, 2026 at 23:59 UTC.

What counts as a strike: an Israeli military attack (aircraft, missile, drone or special forces) that hits a target inside Iran's internationally recognized territory. That covers Iranian land, territorial waters and airspace (for example, shooting down an aircraft over Iran). Joint US–Israeli strikes count. All of the following count only if the Israeli government or IDF officially acknowledges the strike, or at least two of Reuters, AP and BBC attribute it to Israel:

• covert sabotage

• assassinations

• unclaimed drone attacks

What does NOT count:

• strikes on Iranian proxies or Iranian assets outside Iran (Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, ships at sea outside Iranian waters)

• cyberattacks

• intercepting Iranian missiles or drones over Israel or third countries

Resolution: the answer is the bucket containing the UTC date of the first qualifying strike after this market's creation time. If no qualifying strike happens by November 30, 2026 23:59 UTC, it resolves "No strike before December 1". A strike that happens late in the window but is only reported or attributed afterwards still counts if the attribution comes out before I resolve; I'll wait up to 7 days after close for attribution.

Context: a US/Israel–Iran ceasefire is in place. The FT reports that Israel is pushing to restart strikes. Polymarket's "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through Nov 30" trades around 60%, but that market counts violations by either side, so it isn't the same question.

I trade my own market only within the site's normal rules. I won't buy in the first 7 days.