Will the trump administration do large-scale enforcement against grey/black-market feminizing HRT?
11
100Ṁ4882029
64%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
might be resolved based partially on vibes / second-hand information, might resolve early (if it happens)
Update 2025-01-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria:
YES will be resolved if:
3 reports of American homebrewers being arrested (considered yes on 1-2 reports depending on other information and the number of American homebrewers).
Significant actions making it harder or riskier to obtain HRT from international sources, such as a large fraction of packages seized or a significant number of arrests (>10) of people ordering from them.
A significant number of federal arrests for possession without a prescription (>10).
NO will be resolved if there is little enforcement against grey/black-market HRT.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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