good luck @abcde

FYI if you're new to the platform, for future markets you can adjust the % probability for pregnancy happening in any one cycle while creating the market. 50% is just the default.

added a bit more liquidity to push you to the next trader bonus tier. I see you're constantly reinvesting into it, and I assume (but won't have anyone check) that this is an anonymous throwaway alt for a sensitive question. even if it's a throwaway I'm keen to see how this develops and don't want the next question to not happen due to lack of funds.

@Stralor thank you. I'm not able to verify so I'm getting reduced trader bonuses. I don't know if you can you help me get around this as a moderator?

@abcde ah you can unlock them by picking up a star, but that's kinda out of reach. I can toggle you to verified for now yeah

@Stralor I was wrong. admins seem to have reverted that power to admin only. sorry!

@Stralor I was mid-sentence typing, about to ask you how you do that as a Mod. Haha

@Quroe (the controls are in 'manage bans'. used to work for me!)

@Stralor Literally dropping 500 mana on a Plus subscription gets you the normal trader bonuses, right? https://manifold.markets/membership

@Quroe yep, but that's your entire starting funds. the move for a non urgent unverified account is:

• create account

• plus sub

• share market

• trade

• build up for a couple days

• then make market

@abcde anyway. save what little you get from here. I'll bankroll the next market, if needed

@abcde

@Quroe thank youuu

@abcde ☺️

I don't think I'm pregnant 😥 Going to try again next month. I'll wait until the two weeks are up to resolve just in case...

@abcde Are you trying to get pregnant? Your intention weighs heavily on the probability on the future market.

@abcde I'm gonna take a little YES. not every ovulation is a hit, but it sounds like things are in your favor for getting this to work. and 10 days post ovulation is too early to tell. some spotting isn't unexpected.

questions:

• re: "I am the mother of a 1.5 year old." is your husband the father? or are there potentially unknowns about his virility? he hasn't had a vasectomy, right?

• youre having unprotected sex. that is vague in this context, usually just means no condom. are you on the pill? have an IUD? doing the pull out method? primarily doing types of sex that don't lead to pregnancy? or otherwise having 'unprotected sex' while reducing chance of pregnancy? I assume not, but I feel like I ought to double check

• how long have you been trying? did you have to try a few times for your first kid?

of course, these might be sensitive questions so answer only to your comfort level. and thanks for sharing this adventure with us either way!

@Stralor I keep buying a little more. not sure what the right number is but despite the creator's doom and gloom this is too low of a price for how far post ovulation she is

(that slight temperature jump could be psychosomatic... but it could be a very early sign!)

@Stralor I have wide error bars on where the true probability is, too.

@Quroe Yes I am trying to get pregnant

@Stralor My husband is the father of my son. There is no form of birth control being used. The first pregnancy did not come about as a result of me trying to get pregnant. This is the first month I have tried to get pregnant.

@abcde 🙏thanks!

Congrats on getting some

Clever use of a prediction market.

@Quroe Yeah, very cool! Good luck with the pregnancy 😄

@Gen I'm still looking for the day that somebody adds a screenshot of a prediction market about the pregnancy to a baby picture scrapbook.

@Quroe lol, make a market about that too - I would love to see it haha

@Gen As you wish.