Background

Australia will hold a federal election on 3 May 2025.

Resolution procedure

This market will resolve YES if, in the course of the election campaign, a notable accuser earnestly alleges that a notable political entity supports, is supported by, is aligned with, is connected to or has colluded with a notable Russian entity in an improper or noteworthy manner.

This market will otherwise resolve NO.

Glossary

A notable accuser may be:

• a political party that received at least 10% of first preference votes at the previous election

• a federal parliamentarian

• a mainstream media outlet

• a prominent lobby group (such as GetUp! or Advance)

• any person whose allegation is reported on by multiple mainstream media outlets

A notable political entity may be:

• a political party that is polling at 2% or more, including any of its election candidates

• an incumbent federal parliamentarian who is running for re-election

• a prominent lobby group (such as GetUp! or Advance)

A notable Russian entity may be:

• Vladimir Putin

• the Russian Armed Forces

• any agency or employee of the Russian government

• the Russian embassy in Australia

• a prominent Russian businessperson

• an operation, real or otherwise, described by the accuser as Russian hackers or Russian bots

Close date

This market is due to close at 23:00:00 UTC on 5 May 2025, although it may resolve YES sooner.

Further information

I permit Manifold's moderators to resolve this market in a manner consistent with the resolution procedure if the market has been closed for at least one week without resolution.

I will not bet in this market.

• Update 2025-04-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification Regarding the Term ‘Supported By’:

  • The term is supported by does not require any allegation of actual collusion between Russia and a political entity.

  • It also does not require any claim of misconduct on the part of the political entity.

  • The market focuses on the allegation itself rather than the underlying reality of support or direct interference.