84% chance. Often we have a lot of debate over whether Something Is Going To Happen, but usually it ends up Not Happening. I am beginning to suspect that Nothing Ever Happens. [image]Above is a list of all questions with more than 1K traders at time of market creation. Looking at this list, the last time that Something Happened was in April when Donald Trump was arraigned for the first time. Nothing Has Ever Happened since then, by these standards. This question resolves YES iff by market close no question listed above, or any question that has as many traders as one of those questions at time of its resolution, resolves because Something Happened. This means the minimum required trader count is constantly increasing. Notably, this does not resolve if a market resolves because of Nothing Happening. For example, if the main LK-99 market resolves YES by Halloween then Something Has Happened and this resolves NO, but if the LK-99 market resolves NO then Nothing Is Continuing To Ever Happen and this market would still be on track to resolve YES. I will not trade in this market, to keep myself unbiased about what counts as Something Ever Happening.