Background

The Progressive Alliance is a global network of 'progressive, democratic, social-democratic, socialist and labour parties', including (as of August 2025):

• the Democratic Party (US)

• the Labour Party (UK)

• the New Democratic Party (Canada)

• the Australian Labor Party

• the New Zealand Labour Party

The International Democracy Union is a global alliance of 'centre-right' political parties, including (as of August 2025):

• the Republican Party (US)

• the Conservative Party (UK)

• the Conservative Party of Canada

• the Liberal Party of Australia

• the New Zealand National Party

Resolution criteria

If, at the close date, political parties belonging to the Progressive Alliance supply the head of government in no fewer than three of the five core Anglospheric countries, this market will resolve Progressive Alliance.

If, at the close date, political parties belonging to the International Democracy Union supply the head of government in no fewer than three of the five core Anglospheric countries, this market will resolve International Democracy Union.

In the case of a two-all tie between the Progressive Alliance and the International Democracy Union, this market will resolve to the one that governs the larger combined population across the five core Anglospheric countries.

In any other scenario, this market may be voided.

Close date

This market will close at 23:00:00 UTC on 30 June 2028.

Clarifications

For the purpose of this market, the 'five core Anglospheric countries' are the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

As of August 2025, the head of government in each Anglospheric country is the Prime Minister, except in the United States, where it is the President.

A party 'belongs' to the Progressive Alliance or the International Democracy Union if it is officially a member at the time the market closes.

If either the Progressive Alliance or the International Democracy Union changes its name, it will be treated as a continuation of the same organisation and the market may be edited to reflect the change.

I will not trade in this market.